Defections, elections & deselections

Earlier this year, this is what Havering Council looked like:

Then in a by-election in Gooshays (Harold Hill), Havering and London's first UKIP councillor was elected, introducing a new colour in the mix:

Since then, rows, deselections and general nuclear meltdown have engulfed Romford Conservative Party HQ, and just today 3 Tory councillors announced their defection to UKIP:

What does this mean?

The Conservatives still hold over half of the seats on Havering council, giving them enough of a majority to whip their members into voting the way they want.

If 2 more of their councillors defect to one of the other parties, they will lose their majority and the politics of coalition will kick in.

This means that Havering's Conservative administration will have to work with opposition councillors, and can no longer take their views for granted, as is the case now.

The Residents' Association is still the principle opposition, Labour is still the principle minority opposition, and the Independent Residents Group (IRG) is still the minority.

However, UKIP has now become the joint minority opposition with the IRG (both with 4 councillors), meaning they can now propose and amend motions as a group.

Havering's political tectonic plates are shifting. The local election results on 22nd May 2014 are still too early to predict, but one thing is clear: it is very much the beginning of the end of the Conservative's golden age on Havering council.